Baja Weather Service 2007 Tropical Forecast
The Tropical Eastern Pacific will be active this season. Our diagnosis of the oceanographic and atmospheric conditions to the month of January of 2007, of the anomalies of the temperature of the sea, of the circulation in mean levels (700 hPa) of the equatorial troposphere, as well as of the cloudy zones of the strip of the equatorial Pacific (radiation of long wave), the prognosis for the months of May to September of 2007 considers like analogs to the years of 1964, 1966, 1988 and 1995, that are the years that showed to the greater correlations with the present conditions (Bulletin of the seasonal climatologic prognosis of the anomaly of rain from the BWS).
Making the average of the analogous seasons it is observed that the activity of the 2007 tropical season in the Northeastern Pacific, is forecasted below average from 1970 to 2006, with the potential formation of 14 tropical systems, of which 7 would reach the intensity of tropical storm, 6 moderate hurricanes and 1 intense hurricanes.
Note of caution: The results of the long term projections must take with the reserves from the case due to the variations in distribution and intensity from the patterns from circulation from the atmosphere and the ocean. The present information must be considered as it guides for the planning and prevention.
Summary Prognosis of the cyclonic activity for the 2007 North Eastern Pacific - Western Mexico Cyclogenesis
Baja Weather Service Forecast 2007 Season Averages
Tropical Storms 7 6.9
Hurricanes (Cat. 1 & 2) 6 4.2
Hurricanes (Cat. 3,4,5) 1 4.1
Season Total 14 15.2
SOURCE: Baja Weather Service
Baja Weather Service is a Division of Baja Safari Mexico Club
